Navid Ziaee; Majid Ownegh; Hamid Reza Asgari; Ali Reza Massah Bavani; Abdolrasoul Salman Mahini; Mohsen Hoseinalizadeh
Abstract
The effects of a change in the temperature and particularly precipitation around the world are not well known due to their complexity and spatial variations. In this research, the impacts of climate change on some climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) has been studied in Hableh Roud ...
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The effects of a change in the temperature and particularly precipitation around the world are not well known due to their complexity and spatial variations. In this research, the impacts of climate change on some climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) has been studied in Hableh Roud Basin due to ecological sensitivity and special situation of this area and HadCM3 model data were analyzed using LARS-WG model according to A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. The seasonal variations of precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature of the synoptic stations of Firouzkooh and Garmsar were investigated in two periods of 2030-2011 and 2046-2065. Results showed that precipitation between 0.23 to 0.48 mm will increase in the near future and will decrease between 0.08 to 0.15 mm in the middle future. The minimum temperature will increase between 0.5 to 0.67° C in near future and between 1.54 to 1.97° C for the middle future. Maximum temperature will increase in near future between 0.43 to 0.6° C and between 1.47 to 1.89° C in middle future. Finally, the climatic conditions of the Hableh Roud Basin will have a significant difference compared to current conditions in upcoming periods. Therefore, regarding to this issue, as well as awareness of the direct and indirect negative effects of climate change in the various parts of the basin (agriculture, water resources, environment, natural resources, health, industry and economics), long-term planning and strategic management of new situations is essential.
Marziye Sadat Mirahsani; Abdolrasol Salman Mahini; Reza Moddares; Alireza Soffianian; Reza Jafari; Jahangir Mohhamadi
Abstract
Zayandeh Rood Basin has a vital role in Iran's poetry, biomass, agriculture, industry and tourism, faced with drought problems. Clustering approach can be a management approach to reduce drought risk impacts which groups the members with regard to the division based on the Euclidean distance of stations. ...
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Zayandeh Rood Basin has a vital role in Iran's poetry, biomass, agriculture, industry and tourism, faced with drought problems. Clustering approach can be a management approach to reduce drought risk impacts which groups the members with regard to the division based on the Euclidean distance of stations. In this research, the approach of determining the spatial-temporal distribution of drought clusters in watersheds is used to express variations based on precipitation precipitation index (SPI) parameters of stations, which depends on the probability of precipitation for any time scale. Since the maximum spatial distribution of the meteorological stations in the region and the maximum time period of the long-term and possible long-term statistical period were considered the same, the data of 26 stations from 12 years (2003 to 2014) was used as reference data. In this regard, the12 months SPI index was first calculated. Then, the 12-month SPI index, which ended in December, was used for cluster analysis of the SPI, and then 144 data were clustered into four groups. Further, zoning analysis was performed on data clusters. Then, the relationship between elevations as an effective landform factor in drought with SPI drought index cluster was investigated using correlation of variables. SPI correlation with mean height of each cluster stations was studied and the results were compared and analyzed. The results of the SPI drought fluctuation chart showed a very severe drought in 2008 and 2009 and 2010, and severe drought in 2010 and mild drought in 2003, 2005 and 2013. Also, 12-month SPI drought data showed a high and negative correlation with height data. Consequently, spatial-temporal monitoring of drought indicators clusters is recommended as a way to manage the impacts of drought risk.